Real Estate Analysis and Commentary

April 16th, 2024 2:00 PM

How is the Housing Market Doing Currently?

In February 2024, the median home price in Oregon saw a modest increase of 1.1% compared to the previous year, reaching a median price of $488,300. According to the data from Redfin, however, this uptick in prices was accompanied by a slight decrease in the number of homes sold, down by 3.3% year over year. Interestingly, despite the decrease in sales volume, the median days on the market increased by 2 days, totaling 56 days on average.

How Competitive is the Oregon Housing Market?

The competitiveness of the Oregon housing market is evident from the data on sales prices. Notably, 23.7% of homes sold above their list price in February 2024, albeit a slight decrease from the previous year. Conversely, the percentage of homes with price drops rose to 25.4%, indicating a shift in negotiation dynamics.

Moreover, certain cities within Oregon stand out for their competitive nature. Wood Village, Clackamas, River Road, and others emerge as the top 10 most competitive cities in the state, where buyers often find themselves navigating multiple offers and bidding wars.

Are There Enough Homes for Sale to Meet Buyer Demand for Oregon?

Examining inventory levels provides insight into the balance between supply and demand in the housing market. In February 2024, Oregon saw an increase in the number of homes for sale, up by 1.5% compared to the previous year. Additionally, the number of newly listed homes rose by 7.7% year over year. Despite this increase in inventory, the average months of supply remained steady at 3 months.

What is the Future Market Outlook?

Forecasting the future of the Oregon housing market requires consideration of various factors, including economic indicators and demographic trends. While it's challenging to predict with certainty, analyzing current data can offer some insights.

https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/oregon-housing-market/ 1/4

4/9/24, 7:17 AM Oregon Housing Market Trends and Forecast for 2024

Furthermore, examining the top 10 metros in Oregon with the fastest-growing sales prices sheds light on emerging trends within the state. Cities like Roseburg, Tigard, and Lake Oswego lead the pack, experiencing notable increases in sales prices, indicating potential areas for future investment.

Top 10 Metros in Oregon with the Fastest Growing Home Price

The Oregon housing market's dynamics vary across different metros. The top 10 metros with the fastest-growing sales prices include:

Roseburg, OR35.3% Tigard, OR18.5%
Lake Oswego, OR13.2% West Linn, OR11.5% Gresham, OR10.7% Redmond, OR9.7% Beaverton, OR7.0% Albany, OR6.1% Eugene, OR3.9% Hillsboro, OR


Posted in:Oregon Real Estate and tagged: Oregon
Posted by Bob Peterson on April 16th, 2024 2:00 PMLeave a Comment

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January 21st, 2024 11:14 AM

Nestled in the Central Valley region of California, Sacramento County boasts a thriving and dynamic housing market. As one of the most populous counties in the state, it offers a diverse range of opportunities for homebuyers and investors alike. The Sacramento housing market currently leans slightly towards sellers, given the positive month-to-month and year-over-year changes in median sold prices.

However, the decrease in sales from the previous year suggests that buyers may have more negotiating power compared to the previous year. While the statewide median home price in California experienced a modest decline in December, Sacramento County bucks the trend with an upward trajectory. The month-to-month increase in median sold price indicates a local market that remains resilient to broader statewide trends.

How is the Sacramento housing market doing currently?

Sacramento County is a vibrant and bustling area that serves as the heart of the Central Valley region. With its rich history, vibrant culture, and strong economy, it has attracted an influx of residents seeking a high quality of life and excellent opportunities. The county's strategic location, excellent transportation links, and numerous amenities have contributed to its popularity among both local and out-of-state homebuyers.

In December, the California housing market experienced a period of stagnation, as reported by the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.). The existing, single-family home sales totaled 224,000, maintaining a flat trajectory from November but reflecting a 7.1 percent decline compared to December 2022.

The median home price in California for December 2023 stood at $819,740. This figure represents a marginal 0.3 percent decrease from November but demonstrates a robust 6.4 percent increase when compared to the same month in 2022.

Sacramento County Real Estate Snapshot

Zooming into the Sacramento County housing market, let's delve into the specifics of December 2023:

  • Median Sold Price: The median sold price of existing single-family homes in Sacramento County reached $535,000, showing a noteworthy increase from $522,290 in November.
  • Sales Metrics: While the sales price experienced a 2.4 percent month-to-month growth, the year-over-year change was a remarkable 9.2 percent, underlining the market's upward momentum.
  • Comparative Regional Analysis: Sacramento County outperformed the Central Valley region, with a higher median sold price and a more favorable year-over-year sales percentage change.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in Sacramento?

For potential homebuyers in Sacramento, the current scenario presents a mixed picture. The increasing median sold prices suggest a competitive market, favoring sellers. However, the dip in year-over-year sales may provide buyers with opportunities for negotiation. As always, individual circumstances and long-term goals should guide the decision-making process.

Central Valley Median Sold Price and Sales Data

December 2023 provided valuable insights into the real estate market in the Central Valley region. Let's break down the data:

  • Median Sold Price: In December, the median sold price of existing single-family homes in the Central Valley was $462,000. This reflects a decline from the November figure of $474,800.
  • Sales Metrics: Despite the dip in median sold price, the sales metrics indicate resilience. The month-to-month change in sales saw a modest increase of 4.0%, showcasing stability in the market.
  • Price Year-to-Year Change: The year-over-year change in median sold price for December 2023 was positive, standing at 5.5%. This indicates a healthy appreciation in property values over the twelve-month period.
  • Sales Year-to-Year Change: While the month-to-month change in sales was positive, the year-over-year change showed a decline of 14.8%. This suggests a slowdown in sales compared to the previous year.

The Central Valley real estate market appears to be navigating a nuanced landscape. The slight decrease in median sold price from November, combined with a positive year-over-year change, underscores the dynamic nature of the market. The month-to-month increase in sales further indicates a level of resilience, although the year-over-year decline warrants attention.

For buyers, the current scenario in the Central Valley may present opportunities for negotiation, particularly with the month-to-month increase in sales. Sellers, on the other hand, should consider the positive year-over-year change in median sold price as a sign of long-term market appreciation.

Sacramento Single-Family Housing Market Data

Let's take a closer look at the key statistics provided by the Sacramento Association of REALTORS®.

Sales Volume:

November witnessed a 16.7% decrease in sales volume compared to October, with 697 closed sales, reflecting a significant shift in market dynamics. In a year-over-year comparison, there was an 11.2% decline from November 2022, signaling a shift in buyer activity. Notably, conventional financing dominated the market, accounting for 59.3% of sales, while cash and FHA constituted 19.8% and 13.6%, respectively.

Sales Price Fluctuations:

The median sales price experienced a 4.2% decrease from $548,000 to $525,000, indicating a shift in pricing trends. However, compared to November 2022, there was a 2.9% increase in the median sales price, reaching $510,000. This data emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamic nature of the market, where prices can vary based on multiple factors.

Listing Inventory and Months of Inventory:

The listing inventory declined by 9.8% from October to November, dropping from 1,437 units to 1,296. In a year-over-year perspective, the inventory showed a substantial 30.7% decrease from November 2022 (1,871). The Months of Inventory, a key metric indicating the time it would take to deplete the current listing inventory at the current sales rate, increased from 1.7 to 1.9 months. This rise suggests a potential shift in the balance between supply and demand in the market.

Days on Market:

The median Days on Market (DOM) increased from 12 to 14, although it remained significantly lower than the 23 days recorded in November 2022. Of the 697 sales in November 2023, 74% were on the market for 30 days or less, while a substantial 91.1% spent 60 days or less on the market. These figures highlight the continued brisk pace of the Sacramento single-family housing market, with the majority of homes selling within a relatively short timeframe.

Sacramento Housing Market Forecast for 2024

The Sacramento housing market has experienced fluctuations over the past year, with changes in home values, market forecasts, and key market indicators. Let's explore the current state of the market and the forecast for the near future.

According to Zillow, the average home value in the Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade area stands at $555,739, experiencing a marginal decrease of 0.6% over the past year. Homes in this region typically go pending in around 18 days – a crucial metric that reflects the market's pace and demand.

Key Metrics as of December 31, 2023

  • 1.5% 1-year Market Forecast: The market is projected to experience a moderate 1.5% growth by December 31, 2023.
  • For Sale Inventory: As of December 31, 2023, there are 4,124 homes available for sale, providing options for potential buyers.
  • New Listings: A total of 1,271 new listings have been added, contributing to the overall inventory.
  • Median Sale to List Ratio: With a 1.000 ratio as of November 30, 2023, sellers are effectively fetching the listed prices for their properties.
  • Median Sale Price: The median sale price, as of November 30, 2023, is $546,167.
  • Median List Price: The median list price, recorded on December 31, 2023, is $598,667.
  • Percent of Sales Over List Price: A notable 41.6% of sales surpass the list price, showcasing the competitive nature of the market.
  • Percent of Sales Under List Price: Approximately 43.0% of sales are recorded under the list price, indicating room for negotiation.

Are Home Prices Dropping in Sacramento?

While the average home value has experienced a slight decrease of 0.6% over the past year, it does not necessarily indicate a widespread trend of dropping prices. The market remains dynamic, and fluctuations are common. It is advisable to monitor future trends for a more accurate assessment.

As of the current data and the 1.5% 1-year market forecast, there is no indication of an imminent housing market crash in Sacramento. However, real estate markets are influenced by various factors, and continuous monitoring is crucial for staying informed about any potential shifts.

Sacramento Housing Market Forecast for 2024Source: Zillow

Is Buying a House in Sacramento a Good Investment?

When considering whether buying a house in Sacramento is a good investment, it's crucial to examine various factors that contribute to the real estate market's attractiveness. Let's delve into the key aspects to help you make an informed decision.

Sacramento Rental Property Market

One of the key indicators of a strong real estate market is the demand for rental properties. In Sacramento, the rental property market has been robust, with a growing number of individuals and families looking for quality housing. This demand is driven by various factors, including the city's growing job market and its appeal as a place to live.

Investing in a rental property in Sacramento can provide a steady income stream, especially if you choose the right location and property type. It's essential to research neighborhoods and assess rental rates to ensure your investment is profitable.

Sacramento's Cost of Living & Quality of Life

Sacramento boasts a relatively lower cost of living compared to many other major California cities. This makes it an attractive destination for individuals and families looking for affordable housing options and a good quality of life.

The city offers a diverse range of amenities, including parks, cultural attractions, and a vibrant culinary scene. Sacramento's pleasant climate and proximity to outdoor recreational activities also contribute to its high quality of life.

These factors not only make it an attractive place to live but can also drive property value appreciation over time, enhancing the potential for a return on your investment.

Sacramento's Diverse Job Market & Economic Growth

Sacramento's job market has shown considerable growth in recent years. The city is home to a diverse range of industries, including healthcare, government, technology, and education. The presence of government agencies, such as the California State Government, further stabilizes the job market.

A strong and diverse job market can positively impact the demand for housing. Job opportunities attract professionals and families to the area, driving both rental and home purchase markets.

Population Growth of the Sacramento Metro Area

Population growth is a significant factor in the real estate market's health. The Sacramento metropolitan area has been experiencing steady population growth, driven by its economic opportunities and quality of life. An increasing population can lead to higher demand for housing, potentially driving property values upward.

Real Estate Appreciation Trends

One of the primary reasons why buying a house in Sacramento may be a good investment is the city's history of real estate appreciation. Over the past decade, Sacramento has experienced consistent and significant property value appreciation. This trend can be attributed to several factors, including an increase in demand for housing, a limited housing supply, and Sacramento's growing appeal as a desirable place to live.

Investors and homeowners who purchased properties in Sacramento a few years ago have witnessed substantial gains in their property values. While past performance does not guarantee future results, this trend is a positive indicator for potential real estate investors.

Investment Property Tax Benefits

Investing in real estate in Sacramento can offer tax benefits that make it an even more attractive investment. These benefits can include deductions for mortgage interest, property taxes, and depreciation. Be sure to consult with a tax advisor to understand how these deductions can positively impact your overall financial picture.

Resilience in Economic Downturns

During economic downturns, real estate in Sacramento has demonstrated resilience. While property values may experience fluctuations, the city's diversified economy and government stability have often shielded it from severe declines seen in other areas. This stability can provide a sense of security for investors concerned about economic uncertainties.

Other Factors

Other factors that contribute to the attractiveness of Sacramento's real estate market include:

  • Transportation Infrastructure: Sacramento benefits from a well-developed transportation infrastructure, including highways and an international airport, making it accessible to residents and businesses.
  • Education: The city is home to reputable educational institutions, including universities and colleges, making it an appealing location for students and academics.
  • Cultural and Recreational Opportunities: Sacramento offers a rich cultural scene, with museums, theaters, and historic landmarks, providing diverse recreational opportunities for residents.

Consulting Real Estate Professionals

To make a well-informed decision, it's highly recommended to consult with real estate professionals who are knowledgeable about the Sacramento market. Real estate agents, appraisers, and property managers can provide insights into current market conditions, trends, and specific investment opportunities.


 


Posted in:California Real Estate and tagged: Sacramento
Posted by Bob Peterson on January 21st, 2024 11:14 AMLeave a Comment

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January 21st, 2024 11:11 AM

Sacramento Housing Market Trends

What is the housing market like in Sacramento today?

In December 2023, Sacramento home prices were up 3.4% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $455K. On average, homes in Sacramento sell after 26 days on the market compared to 34 days last year. There were 264 homes sold in December this year, down from 339 last year.


Posted in:Marke and tagged: Sacramento
Posted by Bob Peterson on January 21st, 2024 11:11 AMLeave a Comment

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Ontario, OR

Located in the state of Oregon, Ontario is a metro area with a promising housing market. According to Zillow's forecast, home prices in Ontario are expected to grow from 0.1% in October 2023 to a significant 5.8% by September 2024. This indicates a positive trend in the real estate market, making it an attractive location for both buyers and sellers.

Klamath Falls, OR

Klamath Falls, another Oregon metro, shows a healthy outlook in terms of housing market growth. Home prices are projected to increase from 0.4% in October 2023 to 3.6% by September 2024. This suggests a steady demand for homes in the area and potential opportunities for real estate investors.

Newport, OR

Newport, Oregon, is a metro area where home prices are expected to see growth. Zillow's forecast indicates a rise from 0.1% in October 2023 to 3.3% by September 2024. This indicates a positive trajectory for the Newport housing market and may attract those looking for property investment opportunities.

Bend, OR

The metro area of Bend, Oregon, presents an appealing real estate landscape. Zillow predicts that home prices in Bend will increase from 0.5% in October 2023 to 2.9% by September 2024. This suggests a stable and potentially profitable market for both buyers and sellers in Bend.

Hermiston, OR

Hermiston, Oregon, is another metro area to watch. While it shows a slight decline of -0.1% in October 2023, Zillow's forecast indicates a potential rebound with a 2.5% increase in home prices by September 2024. This means that Hermiston may offer opportunities for those interested in real estate in the coming year.

Coos Bay, OR

Coos Bay, Oregon, is a metro area showing a stable housing market. As of September 30, 2023, home prices remained unchanged, and Zillow's forecast predicts a modest increase of 0.1% by September 2024. This indicates a balanced and potentially favorable real estate market in Coos Bay.

Astoria, OR

Astoria, another Oregon metro, experienced a slight decline in home prices with a -0.2% change as of September 30, 2023. However, the forecast suggests that Astoria will see a stabilization with a -0.2% change in home prices by September 2024. While it's not experiencing significant growth, it may provide opportunities for those seeking a more affordable market.

Roseburg, OR

Roseburg, Oregon, presents a more positive picture in terms of housing market growth. Home prices increased by 0.2% as of September 30, 2023, and Zillow's forecast predicts a further rise of 0.4% by September 2024. This indicates a potentially healthy real estate market in Roseburg.

The Dalles, OR

The Dalles, Oregon, is showing stability in its housing market. Home prices remained unchanged as of September 30, 2023, and the forecast predicts a growth of 0.3% by September 2024. This suggests that The Dalles is maintaining its market strength and may offer opportunities for real estate investments.

Prineville, OR

Prineville, Oregon, experienced a slight decline of -0.1% in home prices as of September 30, 2023. The forecast indicates a stabilization with a -0.2% change in home prices by September 2024. While it's not a robust growth, Prineville remains a steady market that may attract buyers seeking more affordable options.

It's important to remember that these are forecasts and actual market conditions may vary. Prospective buyers and investors should closely monitor these metro areas to make informed decisions regarding Oregon's real estate market.


Posted by Bob Peterson on November 6th, 2023 2:46 PMLeave a Comment

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November 6th, 2023 2:44 PM

Top 10 Metros in Oregon with the Fastest Growing Sales Price

1. Milwaukie, OR 16.1%
2. Sherwood, OR 10.4%
3. St. Helens, OR 10.1%
4. Beaverton, OR 8.5%
5. Forest Grove, OR 8.4%
6. Albany, OR 8.3%
7. Coos Bay, OR 8.2%
8. Klamath Falls, OR 7.7%
9. Oregon City, OR 6.8%
10. Bethany, OR 6.7%


Posted in:Oregon Real Estate and tagged: Sales
Posted by Bob Peterson on November 6th, 2023 2:44 PMLeave a Comment

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October 3rd, 2023 3:50 PM

Sacramento County Housing Market

According to the California Association of Realtors®, in August 2023, the median sold price for existing single-family homes in Sacramento County was $535,000. Compared to July 2023, this indicates a decrease of 2.2%. However, when compared to August 2022, the prices have remained relatively steady, showing a marginal year-over-year change of 0.0%.

Regarding sales, there was a notable month-to-month change with a 7.7% increase. However, year-over-year, sales have witnessed a significant decrease of 19.1%, reflecting the dynamic nature of the real estate market.

Central Valley Housing Market

In the broader Central Valley region, the median sold price for existing single-family homes in August 2023 was $485,000. This reflects a month-to-month decrease of 0.8%, and a more significant year-over-year increase of 3.2% compared to August 2022.

Regarding sales in the Central Valley, there was a month-to-month change of 4.0%, illustrating a positive trend. However, similar to Sacramento County, there was a substantial year-over-year decrease of 19.0% in sales.


Posted in:Real Estate and tagged: Home Prices
Posted by Bob Peterson on October 3rd, 2023 3:50 PMLeave a Comment

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October 3rd, 2023 3:45 PM

Housing Market California

The California Association of Realtors has forecast a significant increase in home sales next year of 22.9% to 327,100 units. And they predict a home price growth of 6.2% in 2024 to $860,300.

They believe the severity of the housing shortage will push prices up.  However, mortgage rates might fall a little in 2024, it likely won’t be enough to encourage homeowners to sell.

Homeowners may have to wait until 2025, before rates fall significantly and when that occurs, the California economy will surge and more buyers will be buying. Lofty home prices and high mortgage payments are the key stopping point and that in turn feeds higher rent prices which fuels inflation.

“With the economy expected to soften in 2024, the Federal Reserve Bank will begin loosening its monetary policy next year. Mortgage rates will trend down throughout 2024, and the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage could reach the mid-5% range by the end of next year,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine.

CAR’s data shows strong upward pressure on prices this year with active listings on the decline. High mortgage rates for longer means many homeowners will choose to avoid selling and face much higher mortgage payments, which are increasingly an issue for the inflation-weary.

House Price Growth in California all type.

House Price Growth in California all type. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.

Consistent with that theme, the August home sales report, perhaps surprisingly, reflects CAR’s suggested outlook for 2024. Homeowners are asking high, but now only 44% are receiving that price offer.

Home Prices Rise Again in August

Home prices in California rose again in August, the biggest increase in 14 months. Single family home prices rose 3.3% while sales dropped by 5.3% vs July.


Posted in:California Real Estate and tagged: Prices
Posted by Bob Peterson on October 3rd, 2023 3:45 PMLeave a Comment

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September 28th, 2023 4:03 PM

Oregon Housing Market Forecast 2023-2024

As of July 31, 2023, the average home value in Oregon is $496,690, which reflects a 3.3% decrease over the past year. Homes in Oregon are seeing quick activity, going pending in approximately 11 days.

Here are key home value indicators:

  • Typical Home Values: $496,690
  • 1-year Value Change: -3.3%
  • Median Sale to List Ratio (June 30, 2023): 1.000
  • Percent of Sales Over List Price (June 30, 2023): 38.9%
  • Percent of Sales Under List Price (June 30, 2023): 39.9%
  • Median Days to Pending (July 31, 2023): 11

Posted in:Oregon Real Estate and tagged: Market Forecast
Posted by Bob Peterson on September 28th, 2023 4:03 PMLeave a Comment

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September 28th, 2023 4:00 PM

Will the Housing Market Crash in Oregon?

It's difficult to predict with certainty whether the Oregon housing market will crash or not in response to rising interest rates. While higher interest rates can have a cooling effect on the housing market, it's important to consider other factors that could impact the market as well.

One such factor is the strength of Oregon's economy. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oregon's unemployment rate was 3.4% in July 2023, which was lower than the national average. Additionally, the state has seen strong job growth in recent years, particularly in industries like technology and healthcare.

Another factor to consider is the supply and demand dynamics of the housing market. While interest rates are rising, there is still a significant shortage of housing inventory in many parts of Oregon, particularly in urban areas like Portland. This can help support home prices even as interest rates increase.

It's also worth noting that while interest rates have risen in recent months, they are still historically low compared to previous decades. This means that while some buyers may be priced out of the market due to higher rates, there will still be many who can afford to buy homes.

Population growth can also have a significant impact on the housing market. Oregon has been experiencing steady population growth in recent years, with many people moving to the state for its natural beauty, job opportunities, and quality of life. According to the United States Census Bureau, Oregon's population grew by 9.3% between 2010 and 2020, making it the ninth-fastest-growing state in the country.

This population growth has increased the demand for housing, which has helped to drive up home prices in many areas of the state. However, it has also led to a shortage of affordable housing, particularly in urban areas like Portland. As a result, policymakers are exploring ways to address this issue, such as increasing funding for affordable housing programs and encouraging the development of more housing units.

Overall, population growth is likely to continue to have an impact on the Oregon housing market in the coming years. While it will help to sustain demand for housing, it may also exacerbate affordability challenges and put pressure on local governments to address these issues. As such, it is important for investors and homebuyers alike to carefully monitor population trends and their impact on the housing market.

Ultimately, whether the Oregon housing market crashes or not will depend on a complex interplay of factors, including the strength of the economy, supply and demand dynamics, and interest rates. While rising interest rates can have an impact on the market, it's important to consider these other factors as well when making predictions about the future of the housing market


Posted by Bob Peterson on September 28th, 2023 4:00 PMLeave a Comment

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September 28th, 2023 3:56 PM

The 10 Oregon MSAs for Home Price Growth by July 2024

Looking at Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in Oregon, we can identify the top 10 areas projected to experience home price growth by July 2024:

  1. Ontario, OR: Expected to see a significant growth of 11.9% by July 2024, showcasing robust potential for this MSA.
  2. La Grande, OR: Anticipated to experience growth with a projected increase of 7.4%, indicating positive market dynamics.
  3. Klamath Falls, OR: Projected to witness growth with a forecasted increase of 7.1%, reflecting a resilient market.
  4. Bend, OR: Expected to maintain growth momentum with a projected 7% increase in home prices.
  5. Coos Bay, OR: Projected to see steady growth, with a forecasted increase of 7% in home prices.
  6. Hermiston, OR: Anticipated to experience moderate growth, with a projected increase of 6.8%, showcasing stability.
  7. Prineville, OR: Expected to maintain its growth trend, with a projected 6.8% increase in home prices.
  8. Astoria, OR: Projected to witness steady growth, with a forecasted increase of 6.7% in home prices.
  9. Newport, OR: Expected to experience growth with a projected increase of 6.6%, indicating positive market conditions.
  10. Roseburg, OR: Projected to continue its upward trajectory with a growth of 6.3%, reflecting a resilient local market.

The Oregon housing market demonstrates varying dynamics across its MSAs, with some areas projected to experience notable growth while others maintain stability. Despite the decrease in average home value over the past year, the projected growth in select areas points toward a potential rebound. These insights can guide potential buyers and sellers in making informed decisions based on their preferences and goals, and keeping an eye on these projected trends can provide valuable insights into the trajectory of Oregon's real estate market in the coming months.


Posted by Bob Peterson on September 28th, 2023 3:56 PMLeave a Comment

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